Covid-19: Cornwall records 343 new cases in a single day, suggesting that everyone will have caught the disease by September as government’s local Tier strategy fails to make any impact

Posted By on 2nd January 2021

By Anne North Cornwall yesterday (Friday) recorded 343 new cases of Covid - the highest ever in a single 24-hour period. This brings the total for the past five days…

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This article has 3 comments

  1. I don’t see how you get to everyone infected by September. An infection rate of 343 cases per day covers the 565,000 population of Cornwall in about 1600 days, or about 4.5 years, not 8-9 months. Or are you talking about the increase in the rate, which is hard to predict when we haven’t really seen the impact of Tier 3 restrictions, or future lockdowns. Even so, like John Hawley, I will be staying in.

    • Yes, this “forecast” assumes exponential growth in transmission, which has increased tenfold in only 16 days. To get to whole population infection by September, this increase in transmission would have to increase by a factor of 10 every two weeks, and not hold stable. If the infection rate remains at its current level then you are correct, and only one tenth of Cornwall’s population (about 56,000 people) would get the bug before the end of this year. That would still completely overwhelm our NHS. I am also assuming that the Tier “controls” are having no impact at all at suppressing R with the “new” B117 strain of the virus. I accept it is early days – but ever since the last national lockdown was lifted on 4th December the rate of infection in Cornwall has rocketed.

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