By Julia Penhaligon
The Conservatives would lose two seats in Cornwall if a general election were held now, according to pollsters.
Truro and Falmouth, and Camborne, Redruth and Hayle, would both fall to Labour, according to poll aggregator Britain Elects, modelled for each individual constituency by The New Statesman magazine.
The polling suggests that the Liberal Democrats would fail to capture St Ives despite a 10.8% drop in Conservative support.
The poll is bad news for the Liberal Democrats in every constituency, suggesting their support is falling while both Labour and Green parties advance. In Camborne and Redruth, once represented by a Liberal Democrat MP, the Lib Dems would be beaten into fourth place by the Green Party.
But the data assumes that the anti-Covid lockdown party Reform UK will field candidates, attracting around 4% of the vote. But as the 2019 general election showed, right-wing fringe parties tend to ultimately throw their support behind the Conservatives. The polling therefore might significantly under-estimate Tory support.
Nevertheless the pollsters suggest that 109 Conservative MPs would lose their seats, and that Labour would emerge as the largest party in a hung Parliament. The Greens would get twice as many votes as in 2019, but still emerge with only one MP. The Scottish Nationalists would also make gains and would effectively be the "King-makers" at Westminster.
Meanwhile all the signs are that all six of Cornwall’s current Conservative MPs will tomorrow (Thursday) vote against Labour calls for a Parliamentary inquiry into Boris Johnson’s Covid rule-breaking at Downing Street parties.
Most Tory MPs appear to now accept that any challenge to Mr Johnson’s leadership of their party will have to wait until after local council elections on 5th May.
There are no local council elections in Cornwall this year.