General Election 2024: the final opinion poll points to complete Tory wipe-out in Cornwall tomorrow

Posted By on 3rd July 2024

By Julia Penhaligon

The final MRP opinion poll of the general election suggests Labour is on course to win with a huge majority.

Survation is forecasting  a final result of

Labour: 484

Conservative: 64

Liberal Democrat: 61

SNP: 10

Reform UK: 7

PC: 3

Green: 3

The multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) polling technique is relatively new, intended to "drill down" into constituency-level detail.  Survation says this uses “information about the demographic breakdown of the seat together with characteristics of the local area. Sometimes, however, those predictor variables can be unusual, and lead us to make predictions in which we have low confidence.”

Cornwall Reports continues to believe that turnout tomorrow (Thursday) will be crucial.  Any constituency where the turnout is below 70% could make a mockery of the polls.  We also believe that the “Shy Tory” effect, confirmed by pollsters, has been under-estimated.  While fairly confident of Conservative defeats in St Ives and in Truro and Falmouth, we think the other four Cornish constituencies could be very, very close.

But we agree with the pollsters that the relationship between vote share and actual seats in Parliament is likely to be highly disproportional.

Above: Survation suggests there will be no Conservative MPs in Cornwall after tomorrow.  The Electoral Calculus pollsters agree, suggesting a "probability" of winning: St Ives - Liberal Democrat (89%), Camborne and Redruth - Labour (92%), Truro and Falmouth - Labour (90%), St Austell and Newquay - Labour (72%), North Cornwall - Liberal Democrat (92%) and South East Cornwall - Labour (56%.)  Cornwall Reports agrees about St Ives and Truro and Falmouth, but is far more cautious about the rest.  We think the Conservatives could hold on in North Cornwall and in South East Cornwall, with Camborne and Redruth, and St Austell and Newquay, being too close to call.  Turnout tomorrow will be crucial.

The first past the post electoral system means that once a political party falls below 30%, it risks getting far fewer than 30% of seats.

Survation conducted MRP analysis of 34,558 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was primarily conducted between 15th June - 1st July 2024. The full results are available to download here.

juliapenhaligon@cornwallreports.co.uk

 

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